So now the real $64 question: Which ramp are we really on? Lester e and I have been posting slightly different, albeit both positive, views on where this industry herd is stampeding to, and how fast. Seems he's more aligned with the Fast Ramp Scenario, while I'm closer to the Slow Ramp Scenario.
Actually, they may both be right! Ramping output quickly is easy when idle resources can be brought to bear on the problem. After that, growth hits limitations, looking more like the venerable yeast growth curve. That looks a bit more like the tail-end of the SRS as well, in my opinion.
Of course, these are all "forecasts" that are in fact educated guesses. It'll be interesting to see, in 2004, how close either one turned out to be. Also, I'm suspicious of the downturn end of the FRS; looks too small and too slow for semi equips. Only a 20% retreat? Over two years? That's much more positive than the last three downturns have been. And after a particularly strenuous growth period, which usually leaves the industry exhausted, and builds in huge overcapacity in the downstream industry, namely, semiconductors themselves.
I prefer the SRS, I think it's more manageable and therefore a bit easier to make money as an investor. But I suspect we're on the FRS, at least for the nonce....
Mitch |
