Hello Pezz, Recommendation: buy oil, purchase natural gas, hoard gold (the one true money that rules over all fiat cash), borrow Yen (since government talks about taxing cash), short USD (since government intends to do 2:1 split), believe in Canada (relatively affordable socialist economy selling real stuff), own emerging markets (everything has a right price), and get ready to short the mother of all bear markets.
At this juncture, traversing the US market is like riding in a quantum spaceship travelling close to the speed of light, as the measuring standard is being messed with, all financial instruments look long, at the same unnatural time.
I do not know the trigger for the upcoming kaboom, but can always distrust the usual suspects.
Just for example, the US action in Iran may, at this stage, simply be a reaction.
The US plans for the region may or may not be workable in the long run (if it intends to remake the map or reform the governance), may or may not be manageable in the short time (pacifications, house-to-house searches), but in the mean time the US must put down what is still a low-temperature guerrilla fight in north/west Sunni Iraq before Iran manages to organize the south/east Shiite Iraqis to mutiny. Shoulder fired rockets, rocket propelled grenades, discontent population without utilities, Saddam on the loose, Iran going nuclear, observing Russians, interfering French, twin deficits, rising government take, globalization caused productivity increase that is leading to more unemployment, and perpetual occupation of a faraway land is a potent and possibly toxic mix.
The oil pipe to Turkey has already been damaged, and will continue to be disrupted. Anyone helping to fix the pipes will be a target.
At some point, the fear of no oil from Iraq, less oil from Iran (due either to UN-sanctioned, or US-unilateral embargo), and a restive Saudi Arabia may panic the market already edgy about energy supply/pricing, especially as the Venezuelan situation is as it was, ready to deteriorate at no moment’s notice.
Chugs, Jay |
