The cheerful view
In my short familiarity with the subject, I find the idea that oil will peak and peak soon to be compelling. Higher market prices won't lead to more discoveries if there is not more (or nothing major) more to discover. In addition, we had a time of higher prices -- in the 70s -- and so have already searched for alternatives, and not found any good ones.
All that being said, I prefer to hope that some technological miracle will save us (cold fusion returns!); or that the downward slope from peak won't be so steep that we won't have time and money to build atomic windmills, or solar thinking caps trickling hydrogen into pocket storage packs while we stroll around on Sunday.
Here's a guy, Michael C. Lynch, (President, Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology):
gasresources.net
who tries to back up the mantra "the market will save us" (higher prices lead to more exploration, lead to more oil) with almost as much math and charts as the peak oilers use.
I've only skimmed it, and maybe something is there. If, however, oil discoveries have declined steadly for nearly 20 years, the chance those discoveries will retroactively be revised upwards (one of the things I think Lynch suggests) in any big way seems slim.
- Charles |
