Uncertain demand
GM is counting on EV demand to surge in the coming years to get a return on its big investment in D-Ham. It plans to launch 20 all-electric and fuel cell vehicles globally through 2023.
Battery-electric vehicle sales make up only 1.7 percent of the U.S. market, according to J.D. Power sales data through October, up from 1.3 percent a year earlier. The Chevy Silverado alone accounts for 3.2 percent of U.S. sales in 2019.
"Over the long term, EVs will become a much more significant part of the industry. It's that short and medium term where the payout is far less certain," said Tyson Jominy, vice president of J.D. Power's Power Information Network. "Short term, getting consumers over the hump of considering an EV and getting them into the vehicles continues to be the challenge."
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive forecast that battery-electric vehicle share will grow to 4.8 percent of U.S. sales by 2025 and 7.4 percent by 2030.
Excluding Tesla, third-quarter retail sales of battery-electric vehicles averaged just 400 a month. "It is extremely difficult to make a business case to sell a vehicle in the U.S. that is struggling to hit 5,000 sales per year," Jominy said.
EV growth faces major challenges, such as high prices, a lack of infrastructure and concerns about battery range and life span.
"Those are still pretty significant issues to get to the mass market," Schuster said. "We don't expect to see significant volume until those are dealt with."
But GM isn't the only automaker hedging its bets. Ford, Hyundai, Kia, BMW, Volvo, Porsche and others plan to launch more electric vehicles over the next few years.
At some point, "EVs are going to be the future," Jominy said. "It certainly makes sense for this kind of investment, and GM is and remains one of the absolute leaders in the space."
The success of GM's strategy depends largely on consumer perception of EVs, said Hatline, the D-Ham skilled trades trainer. "If the public embraces it … I think this plant will be here for the next 30 or 40 years."
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