Serious article on DVD-ROM. See the sales forecast tables.......
newmedia.com
<<While it may not have lived up to its initial hype, the
introduction of DVD has been a success. To date, about
400,000 DVD video players have been sold worldwide,
and CEMA (the Consumer Electronics Manufacturing
Association) predicts that 1 million will be sold in 1998. It's
time to invest in DVD content.
While DVD-V movies and players are taking hold,
DVD-ROM is where the action is. DVD expands the
multimedia publisher's canvas to as much as 18GB and can
hold more than four hours of video content. In fact, DVD
will revolutionize a key element of the communication
process by turning a PC into a significant platform for
reading and interacting with all types of digital media. Easy
access to gigs of storage should launch an extension of the
desktop publishing revolution that encompasses video,
animation, 3D images, and sound, in addition to text and
graphics.
Over time, DVD drives (of various forms) will also
replace CD drives in PCs. The big question is when? While
experts disagree on the precise date, they do agree that it
will be soon. The vendors are naturally the most bullish in
their predictions. Philips says 25 million DVD-ROM drives
will be on the market worldwide by 2000. Toshiba predicts
that there will be 120 million DVD-ROM drives in the
market by the end of 2000. >>
<<SNIP>>
<<For a more objective view, let's turn to the market
researchers. The Yankee Group predicts 19 million
DVD-PCs by 2001. Forrester believes that there will be a
U.S. base of 53 million DVD-equipped PCs by 2000.
Dataquest says that there will be 33 million DVD players
shipped by 2000. And IDC thinks 70 million DVD-ROM
drives will be sold in 2000 and 118 million in 2001. While
these numbers are all over the map, they do confirm one
key fact: DVD is poised to overtake CD-ROM and
become the distribution medium for software and
multimedia content within the next three years.
If anything, Forrester's prediction that 53 million PCs
will be equipped with DVD-ROM drives by 2000 is low.
In 1998, about 90 million PCs will be sold worldwide.
Virtually all of these will have CD-ROM drives in them. By
mid 1999, the switch from CD-ROMs to DVD-ROMs will
be in full swing, and starting in 2000, every PC that goes
out the door should have a DVD-ROM drive inside. If we
keep selling PCs at rates similar to those of today, we will
have closer to 150 million DVD PCs by 2001. More
importantly, we are getting closer to the time when
multimedia publishers can begin expanding their content
horizons to reflect this new opportunity. >> |
