The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (3516)	10/3/2019 9:41:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 13808

Hi Elroy, I think that trade can be managed but with a lag to change supply channels. UK companies can produce in Euro land and sell their products within the EU's single market. The same morphing of production is happening now with the US firms leaving China going to other asian production centers: VietNam, Thailand, Malaysia, Phillipines. If the payments to Europe for English patriots living outside of UK regarding health benefits is the concern, then come home or pay for your own pleasure might be the answer. My take on Brexit was Brits didn't like the free travel of people into their social security system , which is quite rich. The open borders of the Euro system were too evolutionary too fast. It promised to change the cultural sovereignty of the individual countries. I'm OK with a sovereign country protecting their cultural heritage and mores. It was especially difficult for the Brits to take these cultural shifts in the form of abiding to laws handed out from Brussels. I get that and can understand that. Once Brexit is accomplished a trade deal with the U.S. will quickly come together (I don't buy the BS that they can't talk about it till they leave) - I suspect it's already typed up and ready to go. Populism is on the rise and globalization has swung to its fullest and the pendulum's direction has reversed. The slow attrition of local manufacturing on a world wide basis has worn most to the point it is no longer a positive (cheap goods). China's overly optimistic "manufacturer for the world" has peaked and failed. They now are burdened with rising labor costs and the very difficult scenario of excess capacity and its ever constant costs must be dealt with over the long term. Not an easy situation as the U.S. can attest to for the last several decades. If China wants to compete globally great, but they must now do their own R&D and not insist on it being free or worse yet steal it via a military hacking scheme - complete with its subsidies. In short comply with the WTO's rules and penalties. Conform your legal system to the agreements previously made. This whole ball of "fair trade" will take years to evolve. Those who are smart will view it as a growth opportunity. Smaller efficient plants, building products for different markets and doing it with in those specific markets. If that is too expensive, then pay a reciprocal tariff. That will be the way of those slow to change. This brings about the rush to build out 5G in all countries. Those small efficient highly robotized manufacturing plants will require that 5 G based Manufacturing 4.0 standards. Therein lies the future growth globally and it will negatively impact China for the long term. China's plan to "build it for the world", is in disarray and must now aim at growing their substantial domestic population. The protective tariffs that EUROLAND HAS QUIETLY AND SLYLY IMPOSED ON THE WORLD IS SIMILARLY IN DISARRAY AND WILL BE MOST IMPACTFUL ON GERMANY AND ITS "PROTECTED MANUFACTURING BASE. Subsequently the disaster that Brexit supposedly will be, will be less than expected, as it won't be pretty in Euroland either. Just my view. Bob Bob

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