ANyone know what the number of in-use dumb terminals is?
I bet it is a big number. Let's say the number is 6 million. Let's say 1/3 stay as is, 1/3 go NC, 1/3 go PC over next 3 years.
So 2 MM go NC, generating $50MM in royalties over 3 years for ORCL. That's less than 1% of their revenue, so that's not it, except for some incremental revenue.
Maybe it does open some DBMS markets. But, it also opens market for IFMX, SYBS, etc. I don't know how many terminals, PC's, workstation, etc. are accessing Oracle products today. MY wild guess is that adding 2 MM previously unavailable seats, assuming a relatively constant market share, adds about .8 MM for ORCL. Maybe that gives them 20% more revenue? Also good, but not great.
What does NC do? It makes Larry look like he invented something! IT makes him look like he created an industry. Larry is famous only because he is rich. Bill Gates is a household name. Netscape is a household name. IBM is a household name. Apple is a household name, as is Steve Jobs. Oracle and/or Larry Ellison are not household names. Ask some friends who are not in computer business if they know about Oracle, or Larry. See how many have never heard of NEtscape. See how many have never heard of Bill.
The NC, for Larry, can't be about money. It's about ego and fame. For some people, these are more powerful motivators than money.
My guess is that PCs and NCs will co-exist; there's a need and market for both.
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