Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: A. Geiche who wrote (35476)	1/20/1999 8:36:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

<< U.S. Crude Supply Fell 2.2 Mln Barrels to 321.9 Mln, Contrary to Forecasts >> <<Washington, Jan. 20 (Bloomberg Energy) -- U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 2.164 million barrels to 321.9 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 15, the American Petroleum Institute said in its latest weekly report. The latest API figures show U.S. crude oil inventories are 3.80 million barrels up compared with the same period a year ago.>> *Keypoints here people: number one; I love the ''contrary'' word in that headline ! Contrary to expectations means I make money when I buy into this sell off today. More importantly; we are ONLY 3.80 million barrels up compared to last year ! - we just dropped 2.164 Million barrels last week - in a damn week or two, we could be at or below last years supply levels and going lower each week ! **************************************************************************** <<Weekly imports of crude oil to the U.S. increased by 0.1 million barrels a day to 8.2 million b/d. Last year the U.S. imported 9.2 million b/d of foreign crude.>> * Importing 10%/1 million less barrels of crude from last year. Factor in the catastrophic loss of all the shut ins and stripper wells domestically and the supply/demand equation is NOT as dreary as everyone; especially ''NOESIS'' is forecasting. On NOESIS; he lost great credibility last fall when he dramatically changed his forecasts on our first run up and got faked out (going long/revising forecasts) on crudes head fake rally - this guy is a ''pretender'' - NOT used by ANY major players on the Street. Papaya, don't hang your hat on this guy... lot's of more legitimate gloom & doomers out there; NOESIS showed a ''fair weather'' side that was a technically unsupported 180 degree spin - he has made some calls, but it's the ''why'' he's making the calls that I don't buy... time will tell. Bottomline - show me a better risk vs. reward scenario, or a sector for trading that has had 3, now going on 4, 30-50% run ups of late, that have also been a virtual rolling stock pattern that only Wade Cook could have better designed . Trade 'em & keep trading them untill the ''game'' changes ! PS - Doug; my question for Big Dog; - Favorite Oilman's restaurant in Texas; and favorite restaurant he's encountered in his travels... City, Restaurant name and recommended menu items...

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