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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 47.14

-6.1%

Feb 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Smart Investor who wrote (3549)	9/24/1996 11:39:00 AM
From: Burt Masnick	of 186894

The list of doomsday threats to Intel is fairly long and actually quite interesting. Going back there were NEC and AMD. They produced clones by reverse engineering and therefore they had to be cheaper and "better". Problem was they were also later and in an industry where 3 months is an eon, later means kaput. Moving forward, we have Nexgen (now known as nevergen) and Cyrix. Who - you're really scaring me. In an industry where 3 months is an eon, playing catch-up is a VERY serious barrier. More recently - I bought more INTC this past January at 57. At the same time two major houses put out big reports that got a lot of press explaining how intels earnings would be going DOWN in the next few quarters as the PC market was saturated. I told my broker that the research, beautifully bound and printed, was horse- manure as far as THINKING and PROJECTING. Now the THIN CLIENT paradigm - Oooooh. a) Dumb terminals have been around for a long time. They are essentially dead for very good reasons. b) Thin clients are either Network Computers (NCs) which have no disk, little ram and ANy operating system (so long as it is not the dreaded Microsoft) or a variant of a dumb terminal. Just what the home market was looking for, eh? But the Thin Client will dominate business, replacing the pentium. Oh! Just what we need. Total dependence on the server. Can't run didly without the central server. Can't put anything on the local. Don't think so. It is possible that the thin client model will find some followers but I personally put the likelihood of that at around 5-10%. In three years there will be very little talk of thin clients. Note the religious fervor of the supporters of the NC. They aren't thinking. They are true believers dedicated to limiting the influence of Microsoft, for a variety of reasons. Being against somethin is a good way to blindside yourself to reality. By the way, if you took those BIG prestigious outfit's advice you would have missed an advance from 57 to 97 in about 8 months. They probably gave the authors raises and bonuses. All of the above is my humble opinion. Burt

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