Improvement and promise in Africa
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
ARTICLE: African poverty is falling, by Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution, March 1, 2010 Link
Good news on Africa, checking the recent growth data, two academics show that:
We show that: (1) African poverty is falling and is falling rapidly; (2) if present trends continue, the poverty Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of people with incomes less than one dollar a day will be achieved on time; (3) the growth spurt that began in 1995 decreased African income inequality instead of increasing it; (4) African poverty reduction is remarkably general: it cannot be explained by a large country, or even by a single set of countries possessing some beneficial geographical or historical characteristic.
The one great regret I have on Pentagon's New Map was my pessimism on Africa as a target for integration by globalization. I bet against my usual optimism on these things, and I was completely wrong to do so. The best part: globalization does not increase income inequality, something that Martin Wolf has long argued (i.e., that it lifts all boats, so to speak, better than most people realize in their instinctive anti-globalization sentiment). If I'm China, I scan the world for the right set of cheap labor to slot in behind me as I move up the ladder, and when forced to choose between Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa, I take the last of that trio in clear preference. These are problems I am comfortable correcting, because Africa today looks plenty like China 30 years ago. Thus I think there is a growing body of evidence that says Africa, on the heels of South Asia (led by India), is the next big scene of integration into the global economy. As for the alleged de-globalization? Dream on. |
