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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 51.59-1.1%Dec 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: dalroi who wrote (355)8/14/1999 7:43:00 AM
From: Mike McFarland   of 52153
 
Good luck to both of us Bafort--and
maybe we will see Neuroinvestment chime
in on NBIX again soon!

*OT* a little essay on picking biotechs I just
pounded out, thought you folks would get a kick
out of it:

Just pick the blue ones

I'm just a little kid who loves blueberries.

Up here in Western Washington State, the weather has been cool
and damp--not much of a summer, global cooling I guess. The snow
hasn't even all melted from the higher northern slopes of the
Casades and Olympics. A lot of mornings there is a low stratus
deck and a little drizzle, the grass starts wet and the
temperatures is usually in the 50s early in the day--the makes
sense--the temperatures of the ocean up here is in the 50s,
and that is why year round the thermometer gravitates to
that number. Despite the gray days, it doesn't really rain much
here in the summer, but we get our share in the bottom half of
the year. It's probably a combination of the rain and all the
greenery that makes for the acid soil, and that's another
ingredient you need: We grow really good blueberries up here.

I suppose picking good stocks is a craft, and I'm just a
little kid who likes money. But like you see in the blueberry
orchard, there are thousands of targets for the happy child.
Where to start. The first time out little kids are snatching
red and green berries, and the blue ones. You can even say,
"Just pick the blue ones" but there will still be a handful
of sour berries in the bucket. I don't have kids yet, so
I have to pick a few sour berries for myself.

Now picking a good stock is like being a little kid, put
into a blueberry orchard for the first time, with a blindfold.
You reach up and grab a handful then run over to Mommy--
"Is this a good one? What about this one".

Now imagine Mommy just says, "mmmmmm" to each query, or that
she answers back in a language I don't understand. Well
after a while all you can do is pick a bunch of the
berries you thing will be the best. I've got 80,000
berries that might be the big dark blue ones that grow
out of reach at the top of the shrub. I just hope I've
not snagged a bucket full of the ones that the birds
have munched on, or that have grown so big and ripe that
they've split open in the rain.

I'm not much of a writer, but hope the rest of you
kids got a kick out of that. Oh, and by the way,
today I'm not researching any of my stocks--I'm
going to pick bluberries...and help pick out maternity
clothes for my wife{:-)}
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