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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound
REFR 1.555-0.8%3:59 PM EST
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To: BDR who wrote (3565)9/14/1999 11:21:00 PM
From: DanZ   of 10293
 
Dale,

GUMM has outperformed the market averages over the past few weeks although the stock has been in a trading range. There have been opportunities to trade the stock long and short, and traders are the only ones who made any money in the stock since we began talking about it on this thread. When GUMM fell to the 10 to 11 support area, I asked Bill if he was covering. He said no. Since I don't think GUMM is a good long term short, I think that was a mistake. When you trade stocks, you should buy near support and sell near resistance.

Here's my prediction: If the clinical work for Zicam is accepted by the NEJM, the trading range will end abruptly. If GumTech announces a nicotine gum contract, the trading range will end abruptly. If GumTech announces a dental gum contract with a company the size of Colgate or Warner Lambert, the trading range will end abruptly. I wouldn't want to be caught short if either of these three things happens. Given my belief that it's only a matter of time before one or more of these events occur, I think it is foolish to maintain a short position in the stock. It's like playing with fire. If news comes out overnight, shorts are going to be caught with a 50% loss minimum (my guess) on the open.

I'm not here to argue. I'm here to share ideas that help me and others make money. I maintain that GUMM is not a good short sale for more than a day trade. Everyone knows the risks of holding a position in it overnight.

Best of luck,

Dan
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