James,
I think it is momo driven for the following reasons.
AVG trade today 669 shares average price looks close to $8.80/share 670(rounding)x8.8= 5896 just under 6K per trade average. That is borderline but looks like dumb money to me. Dumb money is small amounts usually under around $6k. Smart money is much higher. For example, trading out of ZRAN today earlier in the day, smart money exited. Early in the day, I saw average trade sizes of 700-800 trading around $21+ per share. But by day end, the average shares was around 580 and the price was around $20. This means to me that a lot of small shares (dumb money) was exiting in the afternoon after the smart money exited earlier. The dumb money dropped the average shares from 800 down to 580 by day end.
Second - notice the huge volume last two days and the gap up. This looks like a typical momentum stock. Will it stay up? Depends on how fast Visionics can capitalize on the interest in increased security, and how long it takes daytraders and momos to get tired of waiting for it to go up more.
My guess is that since it looks so much like a momentum stock, (momo) right now, it will continue to act as same and drop over the next couple of days/weeks. It may still go up for another day or so as investors are looking for winners when they get out of the losers.
Over time, I THINK they will go up and stay, but at these prices, I'd have to have the stock in a long-term account to be willing to invest in them.
EDIT: After looking at the chart again and looking at the outstanding shares, normal average volume, and float, I'd say that there are people selling a lot of shares right now as people are buying. The gap up was high and given the volume, they price should have kept on rising if there weren't sellers. Now, the sellers could be longs who just want a decent profit, or they could be a combination of longs and shorts. If I had been long at $5 or less and saw it jump like that, I surely would have taken some off the table, but I am betting there are short sellers taking advantage of the gap up and strong buying. Shorts like to sell into strength if they think it will be temporary.
I should know.
I am neither long nor short on VSNX right now. Again, I wouldn't buy here given what I am seeing.
Also, if you want to see if funds are entering, you should look at the time and sales data and look for block buying. That will tell you. Freerealtime.com has that type of data.
Stay in the Black! jimS |
