'New Blood' Needed to Reverse GOP's Fortunes, Some in Party Say
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By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 11, 2007; C06
RICHMOND -- The beating suffered by Virginia Republicans at the hands of Democrats on Tuesday has prompted a widespread debate within the state GOP over whether it needs new leaders to rejuvenate the party and salvage its electoral fortunes.
The Republicans not only lost the state Senate to the Democrats but also gave up House seats and several county government offices. Conceding they have been outmaneuvered by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and the Democrats, GOP elected officials and activists say the party must recast its message and find strong leaders to deliver it, especially in fast-growing and diverse Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.
The internal debate, which prompted a round of phone calls among GOP activists after the election, occurs at a critical time in Virginia politics. Both parties are starting to gear up for a U.S. Senate and presidential race next year and a governor's contest in 2009, the outcomes of which could cement the Democrats' advantage in the state if the GOP does not respond.
"A lot of activists say we need new blood. We need someone else to carry the message," said Del. Christopher B. Saxman (R-Staunton), who some analysts say is a possible future statewide candidate.
GOP activists and party leaders are growing increasingly worried about their stunning decline. Just 6 1/2 years ago, Republicans held the governor's mansion, both U.S. Senate seats and the state House and Senate. The attorney general and lieutenant governor were also Republicans.
With former governor Mark R. Warner (D) an early favorite to capture the seat of retiring U.S. Sen. John W. Warner (R) next fall, the party could enter the 2009 governor's race with the fewest number of top elected officials since the early 1990s.
Although GOP officials believe Virginia is still a Republican-leaning state, Tuesday's election revealed that the party continues to lose touch with the suburban voters who are quickly becoming the state's dominant political force.
In Fairfax County, Democrats unseated Republican Sens. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis and James K. "Jay" O'Brien Jr. Democrats also picked up a House seat in Fairfax and another in Prince William County. In the Tidewater area, Democrats picked up two Senate seats and two House seats.
And in another possible sign of trouble for the GOP, Democrats have made gains in local offices, including capturing control of the Loudoun, Stafford and Montgomery county boards of supervisors and picking up a seat on the Fairfax board.
Sen. Ryan T. McDougle (R-Hanover) noted that the news isn't all bad for the GOP. Dels. Timothy D. Hugo and Thomas Davis Rust were reelected in Fairfax. Democrats failed to pick up any legislative seats in rural Virginia, despite Kaine's and Warner's efforts to do so. But McDougle, 36, who might run for attorney general in 2009, said the GOP has "not articulated a concise message about why people should vote for us as a party."
McDougle and other GOP leaders say it's time for the party to hone its principles, refocusing on controlling taxes and spending while developing new ideas for transportation, education, health care and controlling growth.
But mapping out a unified strategy that will appeal to suburban voters has proved difficult because of divisions between the party's conservative and moderate wings.
"I think the state Republican Party is in shambles and frankly deserves to be," said Corey A. Stewart (R), who was elected to a full term as chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors. He was a critic of the transportation plan enacted by the General Assembly this spring.
"I think it is time for a change in direction of the party. It doesn't have to be young or youthful leadership, but it should be new leadership," said Stewart, 39.
Although restless Republicans said they are unlikely to call for the removal of House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) or state party Chairman John H. Hager, younger faces plan to push for a greater role in developing and delivering the party's message.
"I sense a level of frustration because a lot of our younger guys have been sitting on the sidelines," said Saxman, 42. "There has been a lot of 'put me in, coach,' so maybe it's time for them to move from double-A to triple-A."
Many analysts noted that Virginia Republicans have a deeper bench of potential statewide candidates than the Democrats, which bodes well for their future. But as new leaders such as Stewart and Saxman seek to bolster their profile, the new generation of GOP leaders is competing under the shadows of the state's past two Republican governors.
Former governor James S. Gilmore III is widely expected to seek the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate next year, even though some party leaders say they fear he is unelectable. Gilmore trails Warner in early public opinion polls.
"I think there are more effective messengers for our party than former governor Gilmore," said David Avella, chairman of the 8th Congressional District Republican Committee, which includes Arlington County, Alexandria, Falls Church and part of Fairfax County. "We have good, young Republican leaders. This is their opportunity."
Gilmore countered that he is well positioned to become an effective spokesman for the party, especially in Northern Virginia, by focusing on the issues of taxes, transportation and education.
"I think there has long been an effort to try to separate the people of Northern Virginia from the rest of the state and characterize them as different, and I think that is not true," Gilmore said. "The people of Northern Virginia are the same as people everywhere. They are concerned about kitchen-table issues."
But a potential Gilmore candidacy is also worsening the split between moderates and conservatives. Last month, Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a moderate from Fairfax County, abandoned plans to run for the Senate after the state party chose to hold a nominating convention instead of a primary. A convention, which Gilmore pushed for, traditionally favors a conservative candidate.
Davis and John Warner have emerged as critics of the state GOP. Warner said after Tuesday's election that the state party had "drifted" too far right.
The call for fresh party leaders could grow even louder in the 2009 governor's race.
Some Republicans are hoping that George Allen, architect of the GOP's rise to power when he was governor from 1994 to 1998, will once again save the party if he runs for governor again in two years.
"There are many people who believe George has not seen his last political fight, and I think it is fair to say George maintains a deep well of political support," said Del. L. Scott Lingamfelter (R-Prince William). Allen narrowly lost his Senate seat to James Webb (D) a year ago.
Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R), who has been planning a gubernatorial run for years, said he is likely to run for governor even if Allen is in the race. A primary matchup between Allen and McDonnell, both conservatives, could come down to which candidate is more electable in a general election.
"I believe I can make an effective governor and an effective messenger for our party," said McDonnell, who was born in Fairfax County and settled in Virginia Beach after a career in the Army.
Before deciding on a messenger, Virginia Republicans say they have to agree on a common message that will appeal to all areas of the state.
In this year's state legislative races, many GOP candidates in Northern Virginia focused on curbing illegal immigration. The strategy helped Stewart, who said the party needs "someone with guts, willing to challenge the status quo and shake things up."
Other Republicans have been critical of Stewart's approach, saying his tone about illegal immigration threatens to push the increasingly diverse suburbs even further out of reach for statewide GOP candidates.
"Prince William is about to turn majority-minority, so what do we do? We go out and play to the fears of the white voters who are about to become the minority," said a longtime Northern Virginia Republican activist who spoke on condition of anonymity because he must work with Stewart. "They are dooming the party for the future."
Still others say moderate Republicans are the ones who threaten the party's long-term success. They point to Devolites Davis, who lost even as she tried to run to the left of Democrat J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen.
"Tom Davis and Jeannemarie were going to deliver the great Northern Virginia for the party, and she got clobbered," said Linwood Cobb, head of the 7th Congressional District Republican Committee of central Virginia.
Before Republicans can reclaim their dominance, Stewart said, Democrats will have to fail at addressing residents' concerns over immigration and transportation, which he thinks they will do.
"The Republicans are down in the dumps right now," Stewart said. "They are out of power. The ball is in the court of the Democrats." |
