Thorben,
Like John, I happen to be a scientific type.
I began an experiment on 9/28/00 comparing $100,000 portfolios of biotech and SEM (semiconductor equipment manufacturers) stocks. Each 'Hubris' portfolio had equal dollar amounts of 8 stocks in each sector. The larger sampling (and, in hindsight, the relatively consistent performance within each group, especially the biotechs) gives greater credence to this comparison than my previous n=4 comparison. In my opinion, these data present an even more compelling case than my previous post.
I've already stated that I feel the SEMs will have a huge rally (100-200%) through (at least) the end of the year. I see no reason for the biotechs to perform any where close to this level. In fact my view is almost the mirror image of your own: unfortunately, I can find lots of reasons why MLNM, INCY etc. will not recover from the collapse of bubble valuations from last year. I can find equally GOOD reasons why AMAT, NVLS etc. will rally powerfully from these levels. While Lucent and Cisco are not the same as Novellus and Applied Materials, the idea is to compare biotech and electronic tech, and since I've already accumulated some data on comparative performance, I'll use this as my experimental paradigm.
I'll maintain these portfolios and compare them with your results.
The seven month results:
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Hubris - SEM
LRCX +29.5%
KLAC +16.0%
KLIC +14.9%
NVLS +7.7%
TER -4.4%
AMAT -16.1%
ASML -21.8%
AMKR -28.0%
Totals: change: -0.3%
starting value $99,982, current value $99,725, gain/loss = -$257
siliconinvestor.com
----------------------------
Hubris - Biotech
NBIX -48.0%
TTP -51.5%
NBSC -56.3%
MLNM -57.3%
VRTX -58.4%
RGEN -68.1%
BTRN -68.9%
SEPR -77.1%
Totals: change: -60.7%
starting value $99,963, current value $39,284, gain/loss = -$60,679
siliconinvestor.com
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Let the hypotheses begin! |
