Short voting gap shapes presidential race By Ellen Wulfhorst
Fri Nov 30, 8:13 AM ET
After more than a year of political campaigning and tens of millions of dollars raised and spent, some experts believe the contests to choose the Democratic and Republican nominees for U.S. president could be over in a mere five days.
The first political caucus in Iowa on January 3 and the first primary in New Hampshire on January 8 could produce the nominee for each party, leaving millions of voters headed to nominating contests later in the spring with the nominees already effectively chosen, they say.
If so, the longest U.S. presidential nominating season ever -- one that began two years before the November 2008 election -- could wrap up in the shortest time ever.
"My opinion is that whoever wins Iowa on the Democratic side will probably be the nominee, and whoever wins New Hampshire on the Republican side will probably be the nominee," said Mark McKinnon, media adviser to Republican candidate Sen. John McCain. McKinnon spoke at a panel discussion on Thursday on the Internet's impact on the presidential race.
"There won't be time," he said, "for candidates to come back or rebuild after losing early primary states."
Compressing the selection process is the short gap between the caucus in Iowa, the first state battle to choose the Democratic and Republican candidates for the November 2008 election, and the primary in New Hampshire five days later. The two typically have been eight days apart or more.
A win in Iowa and New Hampshire can create momentum for later contests, while a loss can mean collapse of a campaign.
Others dismiss that argument, including Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
She argued that demographics of various states -- roughly half of the 50 U.S. states will hold nominating contests as of February 5 -- are so diverse that candidates with money would stay in the race to reach a primary where they have support. Largely white, rural Iowa and New Hampshire are far different from states later in the nominating calendar, she said.
For example, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is almost certain to stay in the race until the January 29 primary in the more diverse and delegate-rich Florida, where he has support and has campaigned heavily, she said.
"You've got one day when 40 percent of the (nominating) delegates are decided. Anybody who drops out of the race whose got the money to compete is a fool," Jamieson said.
WINNING SCENARIOS
But plenty of scenarios showing nominations decided by Iowa and New Hampshire exist, experts say, especially if the same candidate wins both states.
Among Democrats, said Dante Scala, political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, if New York Sen. Hillary Clinton or Illinois Sen. Barack Obama wins both early states, "the race for the nomination is essentially over."
Among Republicans, a split with different candidates winning Iowa and New Hampshire is more likely and could stretch the race into January or February, he said.
Jennifer Donahue, political analyst at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, agreed that the nominations could be sewn up in less than a week if front-runners win both early contests but noted the strong possibility of other outcomes.
"If a front-runner goes two-for-two, it's over," she said, yet a scenario such as a surprise victory by former Republican Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Iowa could weaken support for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in New Hampshire and extend the contest for the Republican nomination.
"These are all possible scenarios," she said. "If any of us could really predict which scenario is going to occur, we would probably be either extremely wealthy or running the country."
(Editing by Lori Santos) |
