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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup
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To: Teri Garner who wrote (36159)9/27/2001 1:55:23 PM
From: KevinThompson   of 37746
 
The problem is that the Semi Industry is still overvalued. At casual glance they look cheap. Even the reported TTM PE's appear to indicate that. However, most of what I've seen indicates that revenues and earnings are continuing to slide and expectations are therefore being lowered. For example, I like to use AMAT; TTM PE is around 16 or so. But expected earnings next quarter is just 4 cents, and the same quarter last year was 77 cents - this makes their PE going forward to be about 28. The expected quarter following that is just 7 cents. Things are not looking very good. If you examine expected revenues, you'll see similar trends.

I asked earlier today for opinions on justified PE's for the group. If 20 is reasonable, then I think we still have another 30% to drop.

I have various short positions in this group.

KT
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