Analysis from the Jerusalem Post. "This is the end of the peace process," says a Fatah leader. One note of explanation: what Fatah has called the "peace process" for the last three years is 100% compatible with suicide bombings happening every day, and 100% incompatible with any Israeli response whatsoever, except of course more concessions.
Analysis: Assassination will increase anarchy
By KHALED ABU TOAMEH
The assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin is certain to increase the state of anarchy in the Palestinian territories, thus weakening what remains of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's influence on the course of events.
The consensus among Palestinians is that the attack will undermine Arafat's already shaky control and boost the popularity of the radical camp in Palestinian society. Arafat's efforts in the past few weeks to regain control over the PA-controlled areas have gone down the drain as he finds himself forced to declare three days of mourning and receive condolences in his office for the man who constituted the biggest threat to his leadership.
On a day like this, all Palestinians identify with Hamas and the only voices that can be heard are those calling for more bloodshed and violence. Hamas and Fatah led the chorus of threats to deal a "painful blow" in retaliation for the killing of Yassin. Fatah and PA officials sounded more like their Hamas colleagues in interviews to Palestinian and Arab TV and radio stations.
Arafat's Fatah said it would accept nothing less than Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's head in response to the killing.
The threats are not only directed against Israel, but also against Arafat and his pragmatic prime minister, Ahmed Qurei, who continue to express their commitment to the peace process. The tens of thousands of Palestinians who took to the streets to protest the assassination were also chanting slogans against Arafat and the PA leadership, urging them to endorse the armed struggle rather than the peace track.
Only last week, there was talk in the PA about arranging a meeting between Qurei and Sharon. Now, however, it is impossible – if not dangerous – for a Palestinian to be seen with Sharon or any other Israeli official.
"This is the end of the so-called peace process," declared Hussein al-Sheikh, a West Bank Fatah leader. "Now the Palestinians must realize that the only option they have is the intifada and more resistance. This is the only language Israel understands."
The liquidation of Yassin has undoubtedly removed the last chance of Hamas agreement to a cessation of violence. Over the past few weeks, Egypt and the PA were engaged in a "dialogue" with Hamas to avoid the possibility that Hamas would take control of the Gaza Strip after the planned Israeli withdrawal. PA officials said they had good reason to be optimistic that Hamas would agree to a temporary truce.
Hamas's popularity in the densely populated and poverty-stricken Gaza Strip has been surging since the start of the intifada in September 2000 at the expense of Arafat's corruption-riddled regime.
Hamas's popularity is not solely due to its policy of suicide bombings. Since the establishment of the movement in 1987, Yassin developed its health, welfare, and educational services to the point where tens of thousands of families rely on it for most of their basic needs. This in turn produced a mass reservoir of political support for Hamas, long before it embarked on its suicide-bombing campaigns.
Arafat was worried before Yassin was eliminated and now he has even more reason to be concerned. Many PA officials were conspicuously absent from the spontaneous demonstrations of anger and mourning in the streets of Ramallah and Gaza City. On a day like this, they know that it is better for them not to show their faces in front of the enraged masses.
"The three missiles that hit Sheikh Yassin could lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and total anarchy in the West Bank and Gaza Strip," said a PA minister in Ramallah. "We are now facing the most dangerous phase since the beginning of the intifada. I don't see how we can continue to function under the current circumstances."
There was already some talk in Ramallah on Monday night that Qurei was seriously considering resigning so as not to be held responsible for the expected deterioration. Others were also talking about calls on the embattled Arafat to dismantle the PA and demand that the international community run the affairs of the Palestinians.
It's not clear at this stage if Qurei will quit or if Arafat intends to accept the offer to disband the PA. However, what is clear is that their credibility among the Palestinians has plunged to its lowest level. As of Monday, the de facto leaders of the Palestinians are the masked and armed militiamen who are setting the tone and planning the next wave of terrorist attacks.
jpost.com |
