*AV* RAIN - I bet you thought I ignored this (wrong!!!)
I spent a great deal of time going through the website, making phone calls and going through the thread on RAIN. I have a mixed bag of results.
However, please read the following posts prior to making your interpretation of my comments below.
1530,1532,1533,1548,1555,1558,1559,1560,1565,1575,1611,1624,1658,1713,1716.
1. I am impressed with the most recent quarterly report and financials.
2. I beleive that are engaged in an aggressive and a rapid expansion pace.
3. I am worried about the unexplained CEO/COO leave of absence. Stock seemed to have begun slide at that time.
4. I am concerned about the high PE ratio.
5. I am concerned about the way the stock has dropped from 36.
6. At times this is a thinly traded stock.
7. They seem to be putting restaurants in the proper venues.
8. Their retail merchandise business looks promising.
9. They have been named the #1 short of 1997 by a prominent indivdual but it looks as if the short position has actually been reduced since this statement was made. Therefore, are the shorts covering and will they continue to cover at this $21-23 level.
10. If the bottom does not fall out on this stock, it looks as if a play from 20-24 is possible which is a nice % gain.
11. I would not be a buyer at $21.50 but would look at it again at $20 or lower, if it actually ever gets there.
12. If options were traded on this stock and I were an options trader (recent experience shows that I am not), I would play a long term 20 or 25 call on this (long term is an option for July August when Walt Disney World is in all its glory and Malls of America is heavily trafficed.
13. I wasn't too thrilled with the website menu selection.
14. Rainforest atmosphere seems very pleasant and educational for all concerned. I would opt for RAIN over Mickey Dee's as a place to take the family. A little more expensive but the ambiance is better than an indoor playground.
15. I do not think we have seen the bottom on this stock yet but it does look as if it will have a hard time breaking down under $20.
16. Finally, winter is a bad time for doing this. These types of restaurants should prosper in the late Spring, Summer, and through Fall when "vacation fever" hits the American and European population.
17. I think it is quite interesting that they are venturing into Canada and are expanding into heaviy visited resort locations like Disney World, Las Vegas, etal.
18. They may have what it takes to distinguish themselves from Planet Hollywood and Hard Rock Cafe.
Statement #16 is more of a timing issue, since I am now having some similar buyer's remorse in stepping up to the plate with both CIG and BYDS.
Speaking of which, there has been some negative press on CIG lately referring to inability to meet increased market demand (manual process for making cigars) if it should arise and whether the increased interest and visibility for cigars are just a fad like the pet rock. Also to consider is how these guys would fare in a lawsuit filed by a person or organization going after a cancer causing commodity. CIG does not have the years of experience or legal force to handle this like the major tobacco companies.
Regards |
