Hiram, I agree and I disagree.
We have seen some waves of this speculative fever, but it has never been sustained. The bubbles get popped, occasionally leaving behind a gem that was really worth it. (Such as BARR among the "bomb stocks".)
First we had fingerprint fever.
Then we had oilsands fever.
Then we had Y2K fever (and will have it again)
then we had gold fever.
etc. etc. etc.
But the activity is still primarly in the large caps, with small caps *starting* to heat-up. The bull will not be over untill small caps go nuts over-all, and everything is firing on all cylinders.
We are perhaps a year or more from that.
I do beleive that we will have either a crash or big bear market by the year 2000. Call me crazy, but my reasoning is that the Y2K problem *is* real, and is going to cause significant disruption to businesses.
The most eerie one to date: I have heard that Visa and Master Card are currently unable to issue cards with expiration dates beyond 1999. (Look at your cards, anyone have one beyond 99?) They tried to issue cards ending in 00, but it caused too many problems with banks, ATMs, etc. that weren't prepared for it yet.
I think that I will survive, because I am a short-term trader, willing to pay the taxes in exchange for the security. I concentrate in a few positions that I can sell quicky if needed. I avoid the stocks that are pure hype, no matter how compelling the public's stupidity seems. :) (The latest one seems to be a tiny oil company that claims to have made a $1B find. No doubt this now-$2 stock will shoot to 100, abd back again, but it will do so without me...)
So far, I am only up 130% for the year, but will try harder. :) |
