Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: exp who wrote (36216)	3/2/2002 4:43:20 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) of 99280

Anyone notice that Oracle said nothing about their May quarter. That is when they are supposed to jump from making about 10cents a quarter to 17 cents. LOL I bet analysts won't believe them anyways. I believe they made 15 cents for the May 2001 quarter when conditions were pretty tough out there. If on their conference call they only forecast about 0.12 to 0.14, that would be a contraction in earnings (from May2001 to May 200 quarter) when thing are supposed to be getting better, a lot better. That puts their PE in the 35-40 range but their earnings are probably going to contract from year to year...even in a recovering economy. They are already a very lean company so I don't see how cost cutting can help earnings--unless they use the IBM method.<g> Overvaluated? Would not pay $5 for it as a long term investment..maybe for a trade. I just wonder how many are going to get taken in and end up buying in the 14-15 range. Anyone notice their competitor, SEBL, had lots of HUGE insider sales lately; and that some analyst said management's "body language" was not good. MSFT waits until after the close to comment about that product delay. If it is not company specific......big trouble ahead. We had a tech spending bubble and we needs lots of pick up in tech spending for the valuations to make any sense. At least in 1999, we were in a guiding upward mode and analysts were looking out 10years for Yahoo's valuation. (page clicks metrics or something --g). At least there was some logic, even if it was twisted. Now, I doubt even the analysts can make a logical case for buying Oracle or some other big cap software stocks. The big question is: how long can this liquidity driven rally last? jmho

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