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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: yard_man who wrote (36200)11/13/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
Tippet:
The European Union participants have issued many press releases stating that the Euro will likely to be a gold-backed currency. There has been much discussion as to what is an appropriate level, with the most discussed figures ranging between 10% and 25%. Note my question mark in the comment. It's a fact that they have the gold to back it to the lower figure. If they do back it with gold (and I would bet that they do), it will be hard on the U.S. dollar, which is backed by sweet diddly.

I've been surprised by the fact that few market participants seem to have factored the Euro into their thinking. It will have much impact and that impact will be largely negative for the U.S. dollar. A new reserve currency is going to cause a good deal of selling of that tide of T-bills sloshing around the globe. Already, foreign central bank selling has been massive this year. The U.S. needs an inflow of foreign currencies to hold things together. The Euro will cause an outflow. Rates will rise to try to keep them offshore,....or they will be monetized by the Fed, with ugly and obvious consequences. Jan 1, 1999 isn't far off. Not the stuff of which healthy bulls are made. From my perspective, just one more nail for this market's coffin lid.

Best, Earlie
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