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Biotech / Medical : Alliance Pharmaceutical
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To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (354)5/20/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: semi_infinite   Read Replies (2) of 548
 
Dr. John and thread,
ALLP is doing a secondary and a broker at Cruttenden called me to see if I was interested. It's priced around $2.50 and it will start trading next Tuesday. The allocations are 9 Million shares to institutions, 1M to individuals and 2M over-allotment. I am typically very skeptical of secondaries based on experience and would normally sell into one instead of buying. The business reason given that ALLP management wants to go it alone (at least long enough into phase III to gain leverage from interested parties) seems plausible. However, that would only be plausible if management thinks that there is a high probability of success and they feel that JNJ is not being equitable on partnering terms. So the key questions for the near-term are: (1) what's the probability that Oxygent will become commercial? (2) if successful, how big is the market and how much of that market will be Oxygent.

I would appreciate your thoughts. Thanks.
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