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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude

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To: smahi who wrote (36534)8/17/2000 2:59:09 AM
From: Doug R  Read Replies (2) of 79331
 
smahi,

ASYS:
Y'know....the 100%+-in-a-day thing has a certain je ne c'est pas quality to it as far as I'm concerned. Chartwise, I'd say watch for a return to 7 and see how it responds to that.
I have this thing about avoiding manic type moves unless I'm watching the technicals BEFORE the mania sets in.
AFTER the mania has started it's best to surveil the situation and develop a strategy if the chart progresses in a fashion that can be defined by something that you know as far as the types of things that stocks do. Alot of what I teach is directly related to "what stocks do". Now that ASYS is doing "something"...it's important to KNOW just what the heck it's doing.
If any stock is doing something that you don't know...there's no way to develop a profit oriented strategy.
I have always been a strict proponent of the idea that one should never "chase" a stock. The vast majority of 100% in a day moves result in a very extended period of backing and filling.
Now that ASYS has gone initially ballistic, there's a larger audience. The larger the audience, the greater the weight can be placed on the part of that audience that acts from psychological aspects of greed. And also equally placed on another part of the audience that acts on rational valuation potential. Chart patterns and volume tendencies going forward from here will allow for a more rational approach.
If ASYS is the next "$100 out of the basement" stock...there'll be plenty of time to participate.
The first step is to study its supply demand tendencies from here (over several days...if not weeks) rather than chase it blindly.
After all...SOMEBODY chased ITRA at 99 and now ITRA's CEO has bought a chunk at 7 3/8. Maybe ITRA's CEO sold some to the guy who didn't pay attention to what stocks do when it was at 99...>>gg<<

IMO,
Doug R
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