Victor -
JMHO on this stuff, the Monday morning 'condensed technology for busy readers' edition.
what would be the consequential effects for companies which sell and service ERP software systems such as CA, SAP, ORCL?
Those vendors are already ahead of the curve on this. SAP has modularized the application layer to allow flexible substitution of components. The next step for them will be replaceable modules at that level which will commercialize a process that many customers have already used on their own. As you suggest, the shift to services in that space will continue, although a big services component has always been part of the ERP equation.
what might be the effect on the chip industry
Intel will continue to win as long as they have standard interfaces to connect. Probably little effect on the component chip business since at that level it is really a substitution of a hidden interface level for a more visible one.
built-in modems
connectivity is the biggest variable in this equation, as the distinctions between internal, local, and public networks continues to shift. Everyone wants in on the game. The pipe owners (cable, telco etc.) don't want to lose any control over their infrastructure or revenue stream. The switch and networking vendors want to turn the pipe vendors into common carriers so that they can extend from proprietary to public. And of course the systems vendors think all of those folks should be enabling advanced systems concepts which extend across infrastructure boundaries. Too early to tell how it will work out. Near term everyone expands market. The big winners at the moment are consumers, but there is always the chance to invest big in the next betamax.
P.S. on this last point, see CPQ's news on the 'triple play' connectivity front. |
