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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: dawgfan2000 who wrote (36660)11/29/2000 1:02:36 PM
From: Paul Shread   of 42787
 
With the average profitable NDX company trading at something like 87 times earnings, according to today's IBD, we had better hope the index isn't headed toward its long-term average PE of 25-30. Unprofitables like ARBA are trading at more than 300 times next year's estimates. The COMPX has been growing at a parabolic rate for 10 years; if the bubble really has burst, I don't think it's going to be over in 8 or 9 months. Greenspan could save the markets, but Fed officials aren't talking like it. Too much complacency still. I at least want to see the COMPX touch the 1990 log trendline at just under 2400 to have any confidence in a bottom. I agree this could be the time to be looking for longs, but I don't think the bottom is in yet.

Look at GM; it is trading at levels that tell me the market is expecting a major recession. Given how ugly the yield curve is, the market may be right. Greenspan is squeezing the market at a rate that has more often than not led to recessions over the last 80 years.

I'd really like to see a couple of limit down openings and high-volume across-the-board sell-offs to get this over with. Otherwise this slow bleeding could continue forever. I can't believe they're going to take the COMPX down almost 50% and barely touch the Dow and SPX, but I guess that's where the excess has been.
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