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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: anializer who wrote (36723)2/21/2010 12:14:04 PM
From: Paul Senior1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 78744
 
PMACA. "Another simple analysis might be that it sells at less than 50% of book value and fairly consistently makes money every quarter."

Three reasons to buy PMACA seem to be:

1. The thing is selling for way under book value. 50% under is very unusual for a profitable insurance company.

2. The company is in transition. (Sold its run-off business.)

3. Dale Baker continually recommends it on the 50% Gains thread. His recommendation is good enough reason for some.

The company earned .66 on its $12.46 of book value. That's 5.3%. Company's been unprofitable three of past ten years. In the seven years it's had profits, 5.3% seems to be the highest roe of any year. If earning 5.3% on their equity is the best & highest figure in a decade, what's going on? The stock deserves to sell at 50% of book if that's all management can deliver to shareholders.
A counterargument would be, the company IS in transition, roe is improving (this year anyway), and earnings and bv should/could/might/will continue to improve.

Too speculative an assumption for me - I can't get past management's ten year very poor roe and very poor bv history, so I have and will continue to avoid the stock.
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