"Can Bubba Save Blanche? [Robert Costa]
Arkansas is host to one of the more interesting primaries tomorrow, as Sen. Blanche Lincoln battles to keep her seat in a runoff primary contest against Bill Halter, the lieutenant governor, who has challenged her from the left. On the surface, both are Obama supporters and all that, but just below, there is a compelling Obama-wing, Clinton-wing narrative that's shaped the race. "To be honest, it hasn't been pretty," says former Arkansas senator David Pryor.
Most of Halter's supporters are hope-and-change, union-backed lefties fed up with Washington, and with certain senators who didn't clamor for a public option during the Obamacare debate. Lincoln, in that sense, comes from a more centrist mold. Cementing Lincoln's center-left bona fides is her biggest backer, former president Bill Clinton, who stars in the closing television ad she unveiled on Friday. And man, does he slam the unions:
Michael Tomasky suggests that Clinton may still be simmering about Andy Stern and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), which backed Obama in 2008.
Can Bubba save Blanche? It'll be close. The race's latest poll, a Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey, shows Halter holding a narrow, four-point advantage over Lincoln, 49 percent to 45 percent. Jonathan Martin, reporting from the scene, has some doubts about Clinton's pull:
The son of Hope and Hot Springs — who now has a street named for him in the capital — remains wildly popular among Arkansas Democrats. Yet the midday crowd he drew at the start of a holiday weekend was far smaller than what he's drawn for candidates in other states. And, despite his popularity, it's unclear whether his endorsement will have any resonance in an election cycle where outsiders, real and perceived, are trumping the establishment.
Clinton also has a mixed record of stirring Democratic primary voters toward his pals:
Clinton's pre-election visit to south Arkansas is credited with Mike Ross' victory over Jay Dickey in the 4th Congressional District race in 2000. But his stops to his home state failed to sway voters to support Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004, or President Barack Obama in 2008.
In 2006, Clinton waded into Sen. Joe Lieberman's proxy fight with Ned Lamont, throwing his support to Lieberman, yet Lamont won. As Lincoln Mitchell reminds us, he wasn't exactly a great asset for Hillary's presidential campaign, either. Despite all this, Lincoln's Clinton logic is clear: After a Corzine-Deeds-Coakley-Specter run for Obama, the former prez doesn't look half bad.
Besides, as ABC News points out, come Tuesday, Lincoln could "have a strategic advantage because some districts she won in May also have runoffs for some House seats, increasing the chances in those areas for voters to turn out." We shall see."
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