Very few times in life we are faced with choice of financial annihaltion or doubling our wealth, this thread owes its very existance to that one point of inflexion where in 97 we embarked to multiplication unforeseen and unprecedented in the annals of human history. Those of us who have steadfastly maintained the course have not seen doubling but quadrupling affect, now we are now at a point where economic numbers look to be stalling, one interesting comparison would be the GDP growth at the start of this economic cycle in 1995, look at the following chart, and you may find that 1995 we had similar issues, slowing GDP growth.. economics.about.com
Considering FED role in a nascent 1995 internet economy, I would consider that 3rd quarter will be 3% plus growth, I am not very sure that we will see second quarter below 2%, but once the recession and stagflation fears are out, as commodities only bring skewed inflation it is the wages silly, which are very well controlled with all these highflying layoffs, we are on the track, itexactly looks a meandering difficult path forward, but that is the way I analyse that is what my analysis has led me so far, and that is how I am going to read, I would be dishonest and unfair if without the kind of evidence I make silly short termish views..
In my opinion the cycle that started with 1995 and blew out in 1997 into a full blown market bull rally is not stopping here, we may see a delay of few years to see that proverbial 5000 level but let me tell you that this hugely weak selling without confidence has no legs. Growth in stocks cannot be discounted, it is not a forbidden science in a forbidden street, the way it has been made to look now.Utilities and Growth oriented stocks cannot stay at sme level, we are right now discounting growth prospects but once we are done with it, the propensity of outperform correspondinly increases.
We may see some further slow down of economy in second quarter but the reversal of fortunes would be in my opinion mind boggling, yesterday on EMC alone I made some decent mney in and out, CIENA and PCLN looks so good for me, so as far as I am concerned, I totally agree with your findings, we are ready to buy these stocks at 50's now at 20's I will sell my bonds and get in. I will be if we are successful in this test of supports at 2150 of Comp or if we break at 1900 start liquidating brka, mo km's and bonds and get into my select stocks that even include something like even MLNM and others..The reason these guys are getting mad on me is that they know it, that Ike was right on Bush, he stole the victory from the jaws of defeat on 18th Oct, no one thought that USSC will do it, no one imagined that AG will cut next morning, my findings are no emtions and my outlook will be right, if these guys in the street or Chambers knew economy slowing down so much they could have prepared better, but any how market punishes delinquents and weak hands.Lets not be weak hand, the economy is doing fine, we are not into stagflation or recession, market is discounting both and telling us the last man out, please put the lights off, Idea thread will stay the course and will reap proper dividends.... |
