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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: debby who wrote (36929)12/22/2000 11:34:14 PM
From: John Stichnoth  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
debby, You've obviously hit a nerve here on the thread, judging by the number of responses you've received (and nerves are a bit raw, I suppose). Please allow me to add a comment. Judging by your comments and your profile, you are really nearer the beginning of your investing than the end. You will be investing more money going forward than you have to date, and you have no economic reason to sell, other than fear that the stock prices may decline. Warren Buffett's comment would be that you should hope for low prices, because that way you can afford more shares in the good companies you want to own. Did you buy cmgi and covd as momentum plays, or because you thought they were great companies? Playing the stocks as momentum plays is a technical analysis game, which we don't spend much time at around here. Playing those two stocks as "great companies" means you believe in them and their managements, and really get to understand them. When you reach that point, you can fairly evaluate where they might be headed in the future.

I note Mike Buckley's response that he doesn't follow either company. I believe that is so, at least partly, because they don't satisfy the criteria set out in The Gorilla Game, aka TFM (The Field Manual) around here. They are neither kings nor gorillas, as defined in the book.

I take seriously the framework that is set forth in "TFM". It helps me get my arms around the companies I'm looking at. May I suggest that you try to answer your own question, in Gorilla Game fashion? How do you think cmgi and covd stack up in their sectors, compared to--say--SEBL, YHOO, RMBS, and NT? And how do each company's sectors compare in terms of future prospects? You'd have to compare their present market caps, of course, and then decide on how good their prospects are going forward. (One thing TFM does help us with is to avoid the stocks that will fall under $2 in the first place. A "true" Gorilla Gamer would never have invested in COVD in the first place--it never achieved status as King).

Hope this is helpful. We New Jerseyans have to stick together.
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