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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3693)	6/27/2002 10:34:59 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95525

Hi Don, I love your analysis. One item of huge confusion to me is how this bottom goes in. As you point out 10/08 was a huge sector bottom - however the low point of stocks were very diverse. I.E. Intc bottomed at a low Back in June Cohu hit its low a week later. I'm not trying to make work -but since you are thinking much like I am - (by comparing the bottoms of these two periods). I would note that most of the stocks are holding trend lines that connect 10/08/98 to 9/21001 to right now - except Intc it has broken below what could only be called a horizontal level of support (an item of great concern to me-and Dan Niles as well I guess). It is interesting to see which stocks lead and which stocks lag - especially at a critical point in time. It appears to me the only pattern is big caps are suffering ( amat and intc) and small caps have not yet reached the trendline (still above it). I'm thinking the degree to which they fight the long term trend line may well point out new leaders as we break out - and I'm not thinking that is too far off - or else all heck will be paid. GULP I'm not thinking that is the high probability scenario - but as E wavers point out - it's ok to have an alternate scenario. TIA Bob

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