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Technology Stocks : Amati - MAIN THREAD
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To: Danny Briere who wrote (36)5/5/1996 10:19:00 PM
From: Bruce Aronow   of 700
 
Despite the perhaps over-emphasis on DMT over CAP, this is a terrific thread!

I have been reading Communications Week and NetworkWorld for a year and I am really depressed at how ignorant I am about xDSL technology. BUT, there may be significance to my ignorance: a whole lot of people out there are without a clue that high speed modems are about to be real. Most IS generalist people expect wide deployment of ISDN to be the only thing likely to succeed for the next several years. xDSL looks to me like it could be a tidal wave. Its speed of deployment and adoption could approach that of the connection speed. Interest in the stocks of these companies will probably exceed either.

The statements made in this thread about how 10BT in a LAN can be a dog seem totally irrelevant. Isn't it true that each user will get a dedicated xDSL connection? So for an ATM backplane, your remote performance would vastly exceed your performance on a busy LAN at the same speed. It then becomes a question of how the service provider works the backplane. I would assume that svc/pvc type ATM connections would be possible, but I would love to hear comments from someone in the know.

I am still confused about AMTX versus the CAP focused companies. It seems to me that DMT is a vastly superior story. Way in excess of the benefits of BETA versus VHS and for that matter OSI versus SNMP. But, those "price-point and time to market" considerations are also huge factors. However, it seems logical to me that widespread adoption is critical but that improved internet access won't sell a new paradigm. The killer apps will be to succesfully deliver videoconferencing and movie feeds. DMT might be more likely to win because of that.
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