Ben, I agree with you. After thinking about Nomai for some time, I think it is not a bottom line issue, but it is a potent psychological issue. I would never buy an unapproved Nomai disk. But the street doesn't know that.
IOM cannot even make enough drives to satisfy demand, so why should we think with a 5:1 tie ratio they can satisfy disk demand? As long as licensing is done in an orderly manner so as not to hurt the bottom line, and all quality issues are resolved, I see it as inevitable and desirable that IOM will license disk production. The sooner the better, because that would mean Zip is really taking off.
The best of all outcomes from this court date would be if IOM and Nomai settled and Nomai was licensed to produce Zip disks, with say $5 per disk going to IOM for the first 10 million disks. Thereafter, whenever Nomai sales quadrupled, the royalty could be halved - down to some minimum amount, say a dollar. These are just example numbers, the point is IOM cannot keep the disks to itself forever. But if it plays its cards right, the transition can be very lucrative. Almost as lucrative as the post-transition will be.
The key issue for IOM the stock is, can IOM management structure disk licensing to continue to grow the bottom line the way the street expects. I believe their record for business savvy speaks for itself. |
