The American Spirit Vs. The Rightwing Message Board

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Politics : The American Spirit Vs. The Rightwing

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To: MrLucky who wrote (362)	9/8/2004 10:30:53 AM
From: MrLucky	of 1904

Can Election Probabilities Be Established at This Point? Only 2 of the last 17 elections precisely fit the pattern John Kerry needs to win the race for president this year: those with a “gap change” of more than seven points and a lead change between Labor Day and Election Day. The two elections that would constitute a precedent for a Kerry win were the come-from-behind victories of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Harry Truman in 1948. Two other races -- in 1976 and 1968 -- came close to these specifications (although ultimately, the Labor Day leader won the election). Thus, of the last 17 elections, 4 can be said to have demonstrated the rough pattern of Labor Day to Election Day change that would be necessary for Kerry to win this year. Gallup Polls September 8, 2004

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