Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: SE who wrote (37206)	2/7/1999 8:26:00 PM
From: Vitas	of 94695

>>>my hesitation to get long. I hope we get a nice solid bounce somewhere that is shortable<<< strictly as an exercise in logic, decision tree analysis, probabilities, and risk reward, any rally that occurs over the next two weeks is suspect, because of what has happened in previous slammation patterns. I assume the 55 day pattern will unfold, but there is no guarantee that it will. In the slammations of January 1973 and July 1990 the market made its top and then just kept going lower. As technicians, we all look for oversold patterns in the market. 95% of the time the market holds and goes higher. The slammation pattern is clear warning that a deeply oversold condition in the market in the next couple of weeks could get devastatingly more oversold. The next one or the one after that may be good ones to pass on simply from a capital preservation standpoint, because if it does crack, the percentage loss will be much greater than the potential gain, and with internet and discount broker systems not handling the load, you might not be able to get through to cut your losses. Vitas

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