Many thanks
I think your method of $/dwt has some validity given the obscurity over the fleet valuation, particularly given the limited public market information that they have disclosed - my caution would be that, while looking at comparables is valid, many are in the same position financially and psychologically, having floated in the bull market.
I don't know what the "floor" $/dwt is historically, but if you were to find that, coupled with low debt, I might be interested in that particular stock. I seriously doubt there are any though.
The true value play was in shorting them in 2008 at the peak - I wish I had been educated enough about value investing at that time, but I am later to this game unfortunately.
Regarding deliveries - they may be able to delay or cancel, but at what cost? With commitments signed, the builder in China and the main customers in China, you risk being blackballed from the country with your main customers in it if you don't keep your promises to commit to the new vessels. That play is the option of the shipyard, but not the owners in my opinion, so I discount it.
Too much to hope for and too little margin of safety in my book.
Regards,
Alex |
