re: when am I going to buy the 2003 LEAPs?
Not yet.
By historical standards, we are still overvalued, using P/S criteria. We've gone from absurd to high valuations in 2000, so far. It isn't safe to buy LEAPs until there are good valuations. If, in fact, we've seen the peak for semi supply tightness, then the semi-equips may decline for a year (4/99-4/00).
If the economy is in for a hard landing in 2001, then it doesn't matter where in the cycle we are, everything is going down.
In fact, I might wait till the 2004s are available (May 2001). I can be patient. I can even take a big risk of missing an opportunity, if that's what is needed to preserve my capital. I was mostly cash for the first 6 months of this year, and it's looking like I should have stayed mostly cash all year.
Or, I may jump in tomorrow, if I become convinced the current slackening of chip supply/demand balance, isn't going to last long. I'm certainly following them a lot more closely, now that the valuations are getting better every day. |
