Bob,
As you know, I've always maintained an equivilent firm has a market cap of half-a-billion +, consequently Xoma is still grossly undervalued IMHO.
We had a "window" form (the gap between Fri close and Mon open), Friday's close should now be the new support level. It is not unlikely that a test will be made of that level, so anticipate the potential to test 7 3/8.
The 2.5MM shares bothers me. A bad cold had me up and down all night, so I was watching the interday movements. 8 1/4 was tested throughout the day. One can clearly see that everytime Xoma went over 8 3/16 sellers quickly stepped in. And while $20MM is chump change in the invetment world, I urge you to look at the volume in another way. In the last three days we have had about 7.8MM shares change hands, 1/3 the float if I remember correctly, and while we did take out the 7 3/8 resistance area we were unable to take out the 8 3/16 resistance area. This is exactly where we stalled in June of last year. I hope now you have a better feeling for why a person needs to look beyond 52 weeks to find support/resistance areas. As my not-so-accurate crystall ball surmized, there would be another test of strength at this level. Of course, last year the volume fell off significantly after reaching the 8 1/8 high so it would be reasonable to expect another good volume day (8x+ normal) will punch through this level.
I offer this interpretation not as trading advice nor as a bearish assesment of Xoma, but as information to keep the uncertain Xomite from selling too early, which could make a fall-back from current levels a "self fulfilling prophesy." I have said before that I am waiting for a close above $8.75 before commiting significant resoruces to a position in Xoma. At that point in time almost everyone should be making money, consequently they will be unwilling to sell, making our $20 year end goal a "self fulfilling prophesy."
As always, normal disclaimers, crystal ball stuff.
ps-sorry for spelling errors, I'll blame it on the cold medicine. |
