There are just a few more trading days left and given the large lead held by MOPGCW’s portfolio, it’s fairly certain MOPGCW will be the 2015 Biotech Charity Contest winner.
So, for those who’d like to get a 2015 tax deduction for their pledge, the charity MOPGCW selected when posting his portfolio was Cambodia Tomorrow. Here’s their website: cambodiatomorrow.org
In the past, some contestants wanted to show their appreciation for my efforts running the Contest by contributing to a charity I selected along with the Contest winner's charity. For those who would like to make such a contribution (no obligation, of course!) I’ll once again choose the East Bay College Fund. Here’s their website: eastbaycollegefund.org
This year, along with my administrative efforts, I made another significant Contest-related “sacrifice.” I picked a Contest portfolio that will almost surely come in dead last, now being down -31.41% YTD, 5% under the next worst portfolio.
This is the second time in 11 years my portfolio has finished last in the Contest. And although I’ve had a few good years (most recently, in 2013, I was No. 4 in Contest with a 125% YTD gain), I have to consider whether my microcap stockpicking strategy for a one-year buy-and-hold Contest makes sense. Judging by my overall 11-year Contest performance, the answer is that it doesn’t.
Using this past Thursday’s (12/24) close for this year’s performance, for the 11 Contests beginning in 2005, my median Contest rank is No. 8. And if I had invested a $100,000 in my 2005 Contest picks and reinvested my year-end total in the following year’s Contest, my portfolio today would be worth about $205,000 or close to a double (that translates to a compound annual growth rate or CAGR of 6.76% over 11 years).
A double over 11 years may not seem disastrous, but it pales in comparison to the large-cap biotech NBI. Not including dividends, $100,000 invested in the NBI at the beginning of 2005 would now be worth about $462,000 (that translates to CAGR of 14.93% over 11 years). In other words, more than a quadruple vs. my lousy double!
However, even the excellent NBI performance is no match for one of the top Biotech Contest performers, RKRW. $100,000 invested in RKRW’s 2005 Contest picks, with the year-end total reinvested in the following year’s Contest, would have grown to about $1.73 million today (that translates to a phenomenal CAGR of 29.60% over 11 years). Wow!!! And this amazing performance was achieved despite three double-digit losses over the 11 Contests (including a -25.31% loss in 2007 followed by a whopping -46.52% drop in 2008).
Given my less than stellar Contest record, some of you may be wondering about my real world stockpicking performance. Well, fortunately, I’ve done quite a bit better in the real world this year than down -31.41%. I managed to sell a few of my Contest portfolio stocks that I held in the real world at far higher prices than they are now (e.g., SRNE, TKMR/ABUS, TRIL) and, of course, I didn’t have my entire real world portfolio solely invested in my Contest stock picks.
In addition, due in part to some great stock ideas from Charity Contest regulars, my approximate real world CAGR for the 11 years beginning in 2005 is about 12%. And, since in recent years I’ve been cutting back on my microcap stock plays and holding more cash, that 12% looks a bit better risk-adjusted. In any case, thankfully, I’m not yet in need of a GoFundMe campaign. ;-)
Meanwhile, the “2016 Biotech Charity Contest” is accepting portfolio submissions.
Here’s the link:
Subject 59661
I should note, for the 2016 Contest I’m not planning to make another “sacrifice” by picking a portfolio that finishes last. ;-)
May the Force be with you all in 2016!
Peace & good health,
Bulba |
