AMD IS NO MATCH TO INTEL. ALL THIS FUSS OF AMD TAKING MARKET SHARE FROM INTEL WILL COME TO NAUGHT AS INTEL COMES UP WITH NEXT AFTER NEXT GENERATION OF PENTIUM. MAY BE K-6 HAS SOME EDGE OVER PENTIUM PRO, HOWEVER INTEL BILLIONS IN R&D WOULD DEMOLISH AMD.READ THE FOLLOWING FROM BARRONS;
Unfortunately, even if AMD succeeds in selling K6, and gets new customers, and retains old customers, and even doubles its current share of the microprocessor market to about 15% or so--even if all that happens, AMD still won't shake Intel's hold on the architecture of the personal computer.
Why? Basically, Intel's just too far ahead to be challenged. Intel has another generation to come after the Pentium Pro, and another one after that. So even if Intel did mess up the Pentium Pro--at this point it's too early to tell--and even if it turns out the company shouldn't have changed sockets for Pentium II, Intel will use its billions and billions of dollars to get things right with the next generation of microprocessors. And the big computer manufacturers, which rely on Intel for the overwhelming majority of their processor chips, will give their major partner plenty of time and will work with Intel as they plan future generations of chips and PCs. AMD will be back where it started, a little chip company trailing behind in Intel's wake.
AMD will have served to shake Intel up a bit, perhaps making it a little more humble about how well it understands its customers. AMD will have sold a few hundred million or even a few billion dollars' worth of microprocessors and made its shareholders happy for a while. AMD will have given chip analysts and columnists something to write about. But Intel will still be king of the hill.
Unless, of course, AMD can do it twice in a row. It will beat Intel to market with a single-chip version of a Pentium Pro-type chip. If it can do the same with K7, its alternative to Intel's next-generation chip (code-named Merced, or P7), maybe people will start taking AMD seriously. Maybe AMD can get between 20% and 30% of the market. Maybe then computer companies will begin to think of AMD as a junior partner, the alternative to Intel they've always wanted. If that happens, watch out! Hey, who knows? Maybe I'll have to write another column about it!
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STEWART ALSOP is a partner with New Enterprise Associates, a venture capital firm. Neither he nor his partnership has financial interests in the companies mentioned. Alsop may be reached at stewart_alsop@fortunemail.com |
