>>Are we going to retest lows in the stock market, or am I just crazy?<<
I can see it going down 200-300 points, but if you mean restesting all the way down to 6800-6900 probebally not. The fuds which missed out will be the first ones to jump in this time since the last time it was the little investors who bought a lot of the shares. I think the moster they created has at last come to their sences. To me creating fear and uncertaintity by using any method available is called manipulation and as people get more experienced they tend to start discounting a lot of the hype. Just look at monday, everyone I knew was just waiting cash in hand for it. Scared the hell out of me and I didnt buy a thing but just sell everything I had like an idiot but all those mom's and pop's were buying. Heck even got calls from people asking me whats good to buy. And the semi's are not over valued at this point. They are comming out of a down cycle into the strongest part of their quarter with 1999 being the strongest year yet. Dont let the hype and fear cloud your judgement on that. They might tank but if Klic hits 40, and you storted it tomorrw at 33, How far do you think they would tank now that the fear hype is known by not only the small investors but also a lot of the money sitting in the side lines just waiting for something like this?
edit.. this is from the best TA guy on SI. Most of the time I dont like what I read from him since hes always on the other end but hes always been right about it. Even AMD and MU..
To: +bob wallace (13559 )
From: +donald sew Wednesday, Nov 5 1997 8:03AM EST
Reply #13566 of 13581
INDEX UPDATE
-------------------------
Bob,
Per some of my latest posts, I raised my bottom to 7500 with a linear trading range of 7500-7800. That is not to say that we will see 7500 again; I just use that as a bottom in case of a substantial fundamental change, such as bad news. If there is no bad news, I do not see a dip of more than 100 points just on a technical pull-back.
Keep in mind that the only reason I see a pullback within the next 1-8 trading sessions is that we are in overbought region. For example the DRG index is only 10 points below its all-time high already at 500, and the DRG is an index that can move 5-10 points on a small up-day.
Without any negative motivation to the market, the stronger probability is that the market will dip or remain relatively flat over the next 1-8 days.
I just finished my total analysis of the market, and I am got some signals that there is a SLIGHTER chance that we will just continue up to 7900 over the next 1-8 days. The probability of such happening is less than the probability of dipping/flat, but it has increased in strength. However, such has a stronger probability than us visiting 7500, unless we get bad news.
From a subjective view, I feel that the level of bad news required for us to see 7500 would be if the economic numbers on Friday are very bad not just slightly bad.
I just heard on CNBC that the HongKong market was down slightly by 99 points, but they failed to state that it closed 260 points above its low. I am not trying to make a big deal of the foreign markets, but such is good news for our market.
Seeya,
<<
Even that crazy option guy agrees :) and from my own research I concur with his results.. Of course we only know what the the longer term outlook on them is not the next week or so since even with CYMI downgrading their IPO broker the stock still is going down. so its not fundamentals which define a price in the short term but manipulation.
To: +lisa (27825 )
From: +Options Jerry Wednesday, Nov 5 1997 10:04AM EST
Reply #27844 of 27906
Hi :isa
Sorry you didn't partake :{
But you can and should buy anyway, the near term target is 40, within 30-60 days, and next year, 60???
The second half of 98 for ALL the semis will be blow out city.....
That number is right on the money...KLIC should earn $2.40-2.50ish..
AMAT-KLAC-NVLS-SVGI-UTEK etc etc will ALL be a lot higher than they are today... A LOT HIGHER!!!!!!!!
Anyway hope your well, My Regards, Jerry
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