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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: James Clarke who wrote (3781)	4/11/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	of 78661

James C: re fear in tobacco stocks. That maximum point is maybe possible to see only in hindsight. So perfect an issue for Wash. politicos. Tax the tobacco co's to get rev's., force people away from smoking because that's the righteous, moral things to be doing, and with all the ballyhoo, divert voters' attention from other more controversial issues. If Pres. Clinton makes it an issue to the extent as was done with health care (I'm thinking back to the '93 opportunities with pharmaceuticals), there will IMO be a better buying opportunity when it seems that the tobacco companies will be forced out of business (or their discounted cash flows will be projected to drop dramatically). I would bet that MO and BAT would survive, and even thrive, because of their foreign exposure. Because I think that in emerging countries, tobacco is one of the first "pleasures" very poor people can step up to as they get jobs and small amts. of discretionary income. But I just don't have enough conviction or courage now to buy either co. -g-. Paul

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