Hmm, difficult.
Very mixed. Usually the trading in Germany (Frankfurt, Berlin, Munich) follows the Nyse + movements in SE Asia + news (important here) for US Stocks ADRs.
Volume is often thin and "overshooting" is possible. So, NSCP went up to an equivalent of $46+ (77.50 DM @ 1.7050 DEM/USD), before cooling off when the 0.45 exchange rate news hit at 12.00 GMT (6.00 EST). BT was traded $87 some time.
And one time, back in September I managed to buy 200 IBM for an equivalent of $106 when it traded at 120 in the NYSE. Another customer put in a limit sell but I have seen it on a market maker screen. As noone took it - everybody can do it as there are no traders lurking around.
On the other hand stocks are inactive like Telebras where you basically could trade at the Nyse closing price in Munich or Berlin.
And there are some with german fellowship like HEB, TRBD or LHSG where the prices in Germany always have been a bit better than in NY.
This was reversed for SAP, when SAP was listed as ADR on the NYSE. Here the tail wags the dog...
And then you have to consider the fluctuating USD price (from 1.80 downto 1.59, now again 1.70 within 6 months) influencing the whole market in germany. In summer, when the DM was volatile with 3-4% moves intraday making arbitrage difficult.
The options dealers in the bank i worked earlier, who run options books on US indices, keep it simple. They just compare the indices of Germany, France and the FTSE of London and watch the SP Globex Futures to decide to sell or buy into the opening....they told me once.
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