Well, McSweet, ATPG is a bit tricky these days. To me, lots of risk and lots of reward. But, I'm in with a good position.
Where do I start... To me, the potential cash flow implications are hard to analyze because there are many possibilities.
1) It's uncertain if any wells/rigs ATPG currently has in play are impacted by Obama's recent accouncement. It appears that one of them is, but nothing is certain at this point.
2) The second issue is can ATPG still move forward to completion with all of their planned Telemark activities this year. They may have already drilled all they need to for their new wells, but maybe not. I would be surprised if they could move forward unaffected, but it's possible. Lots of questions...
3) And what about increased insurance costs and increased safety costs needed for ATPG?
I guess my overall view is that ATPG was around these levels in 2009 when the price of oil was much lower, before they refinanced their debt (thank goodness they did this!), and before they started producing from Telemark in large amounts. I'm hoping that based on their assets, they have a good chance of making it through this period of uncertainty one way or another towards future serious cash flows - a better chance than I would have given them to make it through 2009 (which they did, of course).
If you are looking for financial models, there are a lot of people on Yahoo cranking them out, but there is a lot of junk to sort through there also.
Thanks,
cwg |
