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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 220.42

+4.9%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: scott maragioglio who wrote (38209)	3/7/1998 11:16:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	of 61433

<<What this is all about is the end of a 2 1/2- 3 year corporate upgrade cycle. The introduction of Windows NT kicked it off, corporations dumped 486's running 3.1 (which at the time was 80% of all pc's). These corporations then went out and bought high end pc's to stick on their desktops and hope the technology holds out 5 yrs so they can totally write them off. This gave the PC industry a dream scenerio, high unit sales of the highest end products. Intel saw 65% gross margins and the box makers finally saw some gross margin expansion of there own. This cycle is over, the next step is to get high internet bandwidth. After this is avaliable we will see another high end pc upgrade cycle.>> Scott, this is right on target. My desktop at work (CPQ Pentium machine) just got upgraded to NT 4.0 workstation this week (from Win 3.1). They moved to 64MB as well. Still the standard old 15" monitor though (when will they ever learn?). Internal netscape is available, but they restrict outside Internet. The network however is still running 16MB token ring. They obviously need to work on this next. They are typical of many companies. You will start to see the enterprise moving to faster networks, VPNs, voice, etc. In 5 years we will be saying "This isn't your father's corporate network" to paraphrase the commercial. Bandwidth is where it's at for quite a while. However, there will have to be another spurt in PCs and processors to Pentium II and faster machines when networks start handling multimedia traffic routinely. My CPQ box will probably be adequate for a while though.

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