Joe,
From ZDNET -
Ashok Kumar downgrades AMD. After reading the article, my impression on this guy is that he is full of it. He uses only the negatives ignoring the offsetting positives, and refers to Intel's non-existing, supposedly a low volume Q4'00 product as reasons to downgrade AMD. I believe this would be his last attempt at it, because it's going to become more and more difficult for him to come with new FUD against AMD.
I posted the article below, with my comments in Italixc:
zdii.com
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AMD drops on downgrade
By Margaret Kane ZDII
Shares of AMD (NYSE: AMD) slumped 2 to 60 3/4 after an analyst downgrade Monday morning.
US Bancorp Piper Jaffray analyst Ashok Kumar said in a note that the firm could lose share during its transition from K6 to Duron processors.
[ AMD could lose share at the low end, but poised to gain market share in the high revenue, lucrative highend]
"While the budget processor was launched in June, it has largely missed the back-to-school market and will not hit shelves till the holiday season," Kumar wrote in a note to investors. "The company is having trouble ramping the part because it has a bigger die size than K6-2, and they do not have much excess capacity currently."
[ Back to the old FUD - bigger die size. I think he is wrong in saying that AMD is having troubles in ramping Duron. Also he conveniently ignores AMD's reiteration of 3.6Athlons this quarter]
Kumar lowered the stock to neutral.
He also expressed concern over the fact that AMD uses different packaging formats across its chip lines, as opposed to competitor Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC).
"PC makers pondering a switch to Athlon/Duron must wonder whether to wait for AMD to settle on a single socket," Kumar wrote. "As such, AMD is expected to see its 30 percent share erode in the value segment.
[AMD's different packaging - is he going eat his words when Duron SKUs come out from the major OEMS before the end of this quarter? Again, IMHO, he is taking advantage of lack of Duron SKUs which I believe was for a different set of reasons, and spreading FUD about AMD's new packaging]
The company also risks erosion of the seven percent share in the lucrative performance segment as Intel ramps up P4. AMD will not have its next generation SledgeHammer in production until late 2001."
[P4 is not here yet. I suspect it may be delayed because of lot more risks associated with it - new chipsets, new mother boards, new core that's being rushed to the market, bigger die size, etc. Even if it comes out in Q4, the volume is not going to be anywhere to dent Athlon's market share]
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Goutama |
