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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (3825)	11/25/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: Jon Matz	Read Replies (2) of 5676

Arik, my Mom who was born in the twenties was asking me about investing in AMZN a couple days ago. This was my advice to her: May I suggest you don't go chasing these bubble stocks. One of the bubble stock industries back in the twenties was radio. I can't remember which stock became the darling, perhaps it was RCA. It went from around $20 to over $700 before the crash and settled back down to $50 over the next couple years. That industry was almost instantly profitable. Although the internet has some similarities to radio broadcast in that it provided almost instant access to information.... radio was entirely seller directed and so focused that advertisers could pay handsomely for immediate product recognition and market share. It did not have competition from millions of entreprenuers that have already gained the technology and have access to almost unlimited and a nearly cost free open global market. Anyone with a computer can offer information and/or products for sale on the internet with almost no overhead expense. EBAY could have been started by one guy for about a hundred bucks. And at it's peak may require a hundred part-time data entry people working for minimum wage, not out of an expensive office suite, but in their pajamas at home. The income from sales already could have easily paid for the entire computer system required. There isn't going to be any important contribution to society monetarily ... ie: taxes, insurance, profit sharing, retirement income, realestate and or significant technology investment assets...etc. In short, the internet is going to become a (if not "the") primary driver of deflation. Unless of course Y2K fears prove true... then all bets are off anyway. Boy, I sure hope that cheered you up! 8^)

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