Matt,
That's a good point about all vendors, including USRX, having inventories of low end modems. I also agree that the LARGE majority of modems selling are 33.6 and under. However, I think there are two things to consider. Right now only USRX is selling 56k modems, so even for a company with the largest market share, it's hard to make 56k modems account for much of the market. Regarding inventories, I'd reallybe interested in estimates of how much is out there. Does anyone know where you can find data like that? I suppose that you could ask the companies, but I don't think they would say much. I do know that USRX has been selling 33.6 modems since August 1996 that are upgradable to 56k, so USRX inventories of non-upgradable modems would have to go pretty far back. It is the inventory of non-upgradable modems that will hurt USRX. By contrast, EVERYTHING in the Flex camp in inventory at the moment can be considered non-upgradable (with the exception of the modems that were recalled). In the end, I think you're right. It comes down to inventories. ZOOM and BOCI don't seem to be moving anything right now, 56k or 33.6. I haven't kept up with Diamond's sales. I do know that if someone is buying a 56k modem, the only thing on the shelves is an X2. So....
Stu |
