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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 316.33

+1.3%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: JSLyons who wrote (3828)	7/3/2002 1:19:04 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	of 95561

>> "public" Wall Street is virtually geared toward buying high and selling low. OK. That means that stock prices are supported by gullibles lured in to bring their wage-earned money, spend it on over-priced shares, then sell them for a loss, so they can be purchased by professionals to be re-sold to newly lured gullibles with fresh wage-earned money. Etc.......... Fair enough. A model can be constructed from that. The main ingredient is disposable income for the masses. Another element is the number of retail speculators to occupy the "gullible" places. With the reduction of employment, both elements are down lately. So can that account for some of the reduction of prices ? I think yes. Of course there are other elements. But they basically sum to the amount of money available to the market. With at least some foreign money leaving, it is obvious that stock prices cannot be anything but down. So that brings us to the point of what are the V recovery expectations founded on ? Is a reversal of these trends in disposable income or availability of gullibles, or foreign money on the verge of occurring ? And what are the signs that indicate its direction ? I know these are difficult questions. But as the joke about the drunk looking for his car keys under the lamp (even though they were lost down the block). Just because the government does not tell us how much money is leaving the country, it does not mean it is not happening. By the way, even though everyone knows the Euro rose 25% vs dollar. And that surely means funds moved from US banks to Europe. Have you seen a single gov or Fed figure for how many dollars that is ? I haven't. And would really like to know. Because then we can relate that to how much money left the stock market. Getting more pessimistic as time goes on. Sarmad

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