The Future of Computer Technology
Predictions for 1998
By Mark R. Anderson
Publisher, Strategic News Service newsletter
Unlike years best known for the invention of unexpected new technologies, I expect 1998 to be best known as a year in which technologies mature and actually come to market. Even so, this year will be more exciting than most for both technical and consumer readers, as new platforms are introduced and large new audiences reached in ways not before possible.
Readers of my earlier columns will notice, as part of this theme, that some of the ideas discussed below have been unveiled already; and in fact, the exciting part of these stories is that they are now coming to market. Other themes will be exciting as much for their social and financial impact as for their technical novelty.
All in all, I see this coming year as one full of product introductions, and of practical use made of things promised for the past several years. Because of their utility and expanded reach, these new platforms and products will be the foundation for future exploration for an unusually long period to come.
1. Broadband Internet Access Grows. After years of promise, we saw the beginning rollout of broadband access last year; this year, a long-delayed battle between the telephone companies and cable companies will lead to a rapid acceleration of this critical foundation for new commerce. Although full-frame, streaming-video-capable systems will remain limited mostly to business and some lucky (hybrid fiber/cable) cable customers, we will start seeing solutions on (twisted-pair) telephone and regular old cable lines that provide for about 8 to 10 times the speeds common today.
At these rates, streaming audio will become reliable and esthetically attractive, and Web surfing will transition from being painful and infrequent to something fun. This is going to lead to a sharp increase in the audio content of Web news channels, and to rapid deployment of Internet telephony.
2. AORTA Comes of Age. As a society, we are not yet used to AORTA, or Always-On, Real-Time Access, but this will be the year
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